Vanguard Magazine

Vanguard AugSep 2018

Preserving capacity, General Tom Lawson, Chief of the Defence Staff, Keys to Canadian SAR

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22 AUGUST/SEPTEMBER 2018 Foreign AFFAirs and The economisT, indeed most international affairs journals, haVe proclaimed the return of great power politics. what is more, the key agitator in this soon to be new-world- system is russia. ArCtiC BY TROY BOuFFARD AND DR. ANDREA ChARRON Two Russias? a tale of U.S. Coast Guard Commandant Adm. Paul Zukun (right) and the heads of seven other Arctic nations' coast guards sign a joint statement in Faneuil Hall in Boston, June 10, 2016. Photo: Petty Officer 2nd Class Patrick Kelley/ U.S. Coast Guard S ince 2014 after the annexation of territory (Crimea) from sov- ereign Ukraine, it has proven an aggressor in its near abroad, engaged in cyber and informa- tion operations, meddled in elections con- ducted in Western states, poisoned several in Britain, probed the air boundaries of many states and their maritime vessels with its interceptors, and invested in new de- fence capabilities, including a serious pro- gram to circumvent existing ballistic mis- sile defences with hypersonic vehicles. The logical conclusion could be none other than that Russia poses a threat to its neigh- bours and beyond and must be contained as, according to the Washington DC think tank CSIS, "Russia's shift toward a more belligerent security posture is an enduring reality, not an aberration." 1 In other words, expect to pull out your neo-Realism primer, double down on sanc- tions against it, and brush up on deter- rence theory even at the risk of hardening Moscow moderates. Surely, aggressive be- haviour and policies in certain parts of the world or with respect to particular issues portends the same behaviour in all areas? And yet, Russian doctrines and actions vis- à-vis the Arctic are not entirely in keeping with the evidence that makes Russia geopo- litical enemy #1. Despite being the largest Arctic power measured by northern popula- tion, GDP potential, size of territory and/ or military assets/capabilities, it remains committed to cooperative action in the Arc- tic. Are there then two Russias? And if so, should the West treat them differently? Two Russias? We would like to suggest that there are consistent examples of Russia seeking what theorists call a liberal intergovernmen- tal approach 2 to manage/mitigate con- flicts in the Arctic. In other words, Russia will work with other states and actors to achieve international cooperation and so- lutions to issues of shared concern in the Arctic. For example, Russia 1) continues to use the UN Convention on the Law of the

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