Vanguard Magazine

22 APRIL/MAY 2021 www.vanguardcanada.com NORAD Coast Guard, Air Force, and the anticipated Army Arctic strategy indicate the increas- ing concern of threats to homeland defence and security in, to, and through the Arctic. Modernization in and across all domains also includes responding to grey zone tac- tics below the threshold of armed conflict, including in the cyber and information war- fare domains – a subject of rapidly rising in- terest in the Circumpolar Arctic. In 2020, the US Department of the Air Force published its first Arctic strat- egy. Much of the document frames Arc- tic geopolitical circumstances and affirms ongoing national defence requirements alongside new considerations about the integration of US Space Force. Like previ- ous Arctic-related Department of Defense (DOD) strategies, the USAF Arctic strat- egy does not identify actionable Arctic- specified requirements that are need to enhance operational capabilities. Before the end of 2020, the U.S. Army will also publish its first Arctic strategy, which will offer limited actionable direction but will provide a critical baseline from which fu- ture strategies can effectively build and de- velop. Nevertheless, USNORTHCOM/ NORAD Commander General Glen Van- Herck expects Arctic language to be part of a revised US National Security Strategy, which will be instrumental to guide DOD joint and service components as they pursue stable funded mandates to build Arctic operational capabilities and profi- ciencies.General VanHerck indicates that there seems to be momentum and an ap- petite toward this outcome. To the credit of DOD joint and service components, however, the U.S. military is in a favorable position, through its own efforts, to move forward in an aligned and synergized ap- proach once national requirements are ar- ticulated. Reflections Differences in Canadian and US percep- tions of what constitutes effective North American defence may pose a challenge to the US vision of an architecture that incorporates offensive and defensive ca- pabilities. However, Canada may begin to shift its approach to deterrence in light of the uncertainty of the complex threats facing the continent. This would involve revisiting Canada's defence policy outlined in Strong, Secure, Engaged, with a more precise articulation of Canada's roles and desired contributions to North American defence – with the Arctic an obvious area of priority. The imperatives associated with NORAD and North American defence modernization should also encourage Canada to more precisely differentiate be- tween threats to North American defence and security that would pass through or over the Arctic to strike at strategic tar- gets in southern Canada or the lower 48 states, and threats in the Canadian Arctic or threats to the North American Arctic that specifically target people or sites in the region. Canada's frequent refrain that it "sees no immediate threat in the Arctic and in the North" is sound, but it must be supplemented with an acknowledgment of established and emerging strategic threats designed to pass through its northern ap- proaches. Furthermore, Canadian invest- ments in whole-of-society capabilities in the Canadian Arctic, designed to address human and environmental security chal- lenges in and to the region, should be carefully aligned with and supported by military investments in infrastructure and an expanded military footprint designed to address broader continental security needs. In this sense, the 'unwritten and unfund- ed' chapter of Canada's defence policy needs to be written, with careful attention to a changing global threat environment and broader Government of Canada socio- economic and political goals. Polls suggest that the Canadian public is receptive to more defence spending, but securing elite political and popular support for NORAD modernization may prove challenging in the near-term, particularly with COVID containment and response efforts leading to a ballooning federal debt. Furthermore, Canada's problematic pro- curement processes lack the agility and ef- ficiency needed to allow Canadian industry to develop and test innovation solutions at "the speed of relevance" to compete with their American counterparts. With the US forging ahead with SHIELD and other North American defence programs, Canada must decide to what extent it will invest in upgrading or renewing the North Warning System, contribute to land-, air-, and space-based sensors in the Arctic, or contribute to missile defence. This calls for timely decisions – not something for which Canada has developed a strong reputation. With the window of opportunity closing quickly, Canada must decide whether it wants to carve out its own niche in con- tinental defence, drawing upon its current strengths – a "made in Canada" approach - and lead in those initiatives; or simply fol- low the lead of the United States and fill in gaps assigned to it by its North America Arctic neighbour and primary ally. Written for OPSA's L'année arctique 2020 and translated here in English. This piece was originally published on December 14, 2020 as a policy brief for the North American and Arctic Defence and Security Network (NAADSN) and reprint- ed here by permission. P. (Paul) Whitney Lackenbauer is Canada Research Chair (Tier 1) in the Study of the Canadian North and a Professor in the School for the Study of Canada at Trent University, Ontario, Canada. He also serves as Honorary Lieutenant Colonel of 1st Canadian Ranger Patrol Group and is network lead of the North American and Arctic Defence and Security Network (NAADSN). He has (co-)written or (co-) edited more than 50 books and more than 100 academic articles and book chapters, many of which explore Arctic history, policy, sovereignty, and security issues. Troy Bouffard is the Director of the Center for Arctic Security and Resilience (CASR) at the University of Alaska Fairbanks (UAF). He is a Defense Contractor for NORAD-USNORTHCOM and the Alaskan Command, as well as a Network Coordina- tor for the North American and Arctic Defence and Security Network (NAADSN). Dr. Nancy Teeple is a postdoctoral fellow at the DND/MINDS funded North American and Arctic Defence and Security Network (NAADSN) and an adjunct assistant profes- sor and research associate at the Depart- ment of Political Science and Economics at the Royal Military College of Canada.

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