Vanguard Magazine

38 OCTOBER/NOVEMBER 2021 www.vanguardcanada.com which promotes "a shared vision of the future where northern and Arctic people are thriving, strong and safe." Conclusion Changing power dynamics in the Arctic are unlikely to derive from regional disputes over boundaries, resources, or regional governance in the next fifteen years, and instead will be a reflection of broader inter- national forces and dynamics. Accordingly, Canada's Arctic faces no near-term conven- tional military threats – although resurgent great power competition globally may have "spill over" effects on circumpolar security. In the case of the North American Arctic, observations or drivers associated with geo- strategic competition at the international systemic level should not be misapplied to objective and subjective geographical as- sessments of the regional Arctic security environment. Although the evolving inter- national balance of power may undermine global peace and security, this is not neces- sarily a zero-sum game in terms of Arctic regional stability. Rather than promoting a narrative of inherent competition or impending con- flict, SSE emphasizes that "Arctic states have long cooperated on economic, envi- ronmental, and safety issues, particularly through the Arctic Council, the premier body for cooperation in the region. All Arctic states have an enduring interest in continuing this productive collaboration." This last sentence suggests that Russia (de- scribed elsewhere in the policy document as a state "willing to test the international security environment" that had reintro- duced "a degree of major power competi- tion") has vested national interests in a sta- ble circumpolar region. Accordingly, the drivers of Arctic change in Canada's de- fence policy emphasize the rise of security and safety challenges in the Arctic rather than conventional defence threats to the Arctic, thus confirming the line of reason- ing that has become well entrenched in defence planning over the last decade. SSE also highlights how international threats may pass through the Arctic to reach tar- gets outside of the region. Recommendations The Arctic is inextricably tied to the rest of Canada, to North America, and to the international system as a whole. This in- terconnectedness brings opportunities for communities, governance, and economic development, and also poses complex, multifaceted challenges. Accordingly, stra- tegic forecasters must situate the Canadian Arctic in global, regional, and domestic contexts to anticipate new challenges, promote effective adaptations to changing circumstances, and identify how the mili- tary should be trained and equipped to act decisively in concert with its allies. Anticipating and addressing twenty-first century challenges requires clear, coordi- nated action in order to leverage the broad and deep expertise of the modern state and civil society. In the defence and secu- rity realm, Canada's ANPF emphasizes that meeting "enormous collective challenges requires coordinated action across the whole-of-government – military capabili- ties working hand in hand with diplomacy and development." Taken together, the op- portunities, challenges, increased competi- tion, and risks associated with a more ac- cessible (and unpredictable) Arctic require a greater presence of security organizations, strengthened emergency management, and improved situational awareness. They also require more fidelity in anticipating and preparing to address different threats through, to, and in Arctic regions. This article was orginally published as a Pol- icy Brief on March 23, 2021 on the North American and Arctic Defence and Security Network website (naadsn.ca), and is re- printed here with permission. P. Whitney Lackenbauer is Canada Re- search Chair in the Study of the Canadian North and Professor, School for the Study of Canada, Trent University. ARCTIC Changing power dynamics in the Arctic are unlikely to derive from disputes over regional disputes over boundary disputes, resources, or regional governance in the next fieen years, and instead will be a reflection of broader international forces and dynamics.

• Cover