Vanguard Magazine

48 APRIL/MAY 2022 www.vanguardcanada.com THE LAST WORD have been ongoing for years about modern- izing Continental defence, and new tech- nology investments would be required to underpin both. The lack of information in the budget and from officials suggests that the details remain to be worked out and that further engagement with government may be required for DND to start using the funds. Looking forward, the Budget also com- mitted to two potentially consequen- tial measures for defence. The first is the Trudeau government's second defence policy review, which will cover "amongst other things, the size and capabilities of the Canadian Armed Forces, its roles and re- sponsibilities, and making sure it has the re- sources required to keep Canadians safe and contribute to operations around the world." In her Budget Speech, Finance Minister Chrystia Freedland stated it would be "a swift defence policy review to equip Canada for a world that has become more danger- ous." The actual parameters of the review are not yet clear, and 'swift' may be in the eye of the beholder. But in the context of the pre-budget expectation setting by Min- ister Anand, and ongoing discussions about Canada's commitments to defence it is worth noting, as the Budget itself did, that the Trudeau government made a substantial increase to the defence budget as a result of its first Defence Policy Review. That came despite the Liberal Party of Canada hav- ing campaigned on not increasing defence spending beyond the spending plans they inherited. Given Minister Anand's recent comments in Washington that she would be "coming forward with a robust pack- age to modernize NORAD and continental defense," the expectations for this defence policy review would be that it will increase defence spending even further. Finally, of note, the Trudeau government has entered into a period of more restrained fiscal policy. The Budget also announced a review of previously announced spending with the objective of reducing the pace and scale of spending that has not yet occurred by up to $3 billion over the next four years. It is also launching a comprehensive Stra- tegic Policy Review, targeting $6 billion over five years, and aimed at $3 billion an- nually ongoing. That effort will have two streams. The first will assess program effec- tiveness in meeting the government's key priorities: economic growth, inclusiveness and fighting climate change. The second stream will identify opportunities for saving and reallocation of resources and examine in particular options for savings that draw on the operation of government during the pandemic. No details were provided about the impact to any particular area of government, but during the last round of expenditure restraint during the 2010s, DND contributed about one fifth of the overall savings, proportional to DND's share of government operating expenses. The impact this exercise, and medium-term impact of extraordinary commodity price shocks and inflation present in the first half of 2022 will determine the net fiscal impact of Budget 2022 to Defence. Dr. David Perry is the Vice President, Senior Analyst, and a Fellow with the Canadian Global Affairs Institute. He is the author of multiple publications related to defence budgeting, transformation, and procurement, published with the Canadian Global Affairs Institute, Conference of Defence Associations Institute, Defence Studies, Comparative Strategy, International Journal, and Journal of Military and Strategic Studies and is a columnist for the Canadian Naval Review. Table 1: Budget 2022 2021/2022 2022/2023 2023/2024 2024/2025 2025/2026 2026/2027 Total Reinforcing our National Defence Reinforcing our Defence Priorities 100 1025 1475 1625 1875 6100 Supporting Culture Change 1 38 49 52 53 53 245 Less Departmental Resources -2 -1 -3 Less reallocation of funding 1 -1 Enhancing Canada's Cyber Security Addressing the Cyber Threat Landscape 0 88 128 187 223 249 875 Enhancing Canada's Cyber Security Research 0 1 1 4 6 6 18 Supporting Ukraine Expansion of Operation Unifier 0 116 112 109 338 Less existing Funds -5 -2 -2 -9 Bolstering Ukraine's Fight 500 500 Renewal of Operation Artemis 37 43 39 2 120 TOTAL 8184

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