Vanguard Magazine

www.vanguardcanada.com APRIL/MAY 2023 29 A R C T I C The primary and most pressing risk from climate change in the region lies in how it affects the human security, health, liveli- hoods, traditional lifestyles, and identity of local, mostly Indigenous, communities. In particular, thawing permafrost exac- erbates the pre-existing challenges related to the limited and underfunded local in- frastructure, as homes, roads, runways and bridges are sinking in while pipelines and sewage systems are collapsing. In Iqa- luit, this leads to serious environmental and health risks due to unintended spills and the contamination of freshwater sup- plies. Furthermore, in a region subject to the tyranny of distance, and where mobil- ity is crucial to economic activity and to the survival of remote communities, the warming weather fragilizes ice roads and undermines hunting practices and the reli- ability of transportation, leading to more frequent accidents, and ultimately threat- ening food security. Rising sea levels also endanger entire coastal communities, with some of them being forced to relocate. Northern communities also face the se- curity consequences of intensifying mari- time activity in slowly opening waters, as increasing navigation in the Canadian archipelago means higher risk of environ- mental damage through oil spill, release of other pollutants, and damage to important marine life zones. Lastly, shifting migrato- ry routes for animals due to climate-caused loss of habitat means both higher-risk of animal-borne diseases and limited access to traditional food sources, such as caribou, seals and fish species. Risks to national security Climate change in the Canadian Arctic also poses threats to national security on mul- tiple levels, ranging from conventional to hybrid issues. As competition may intensify for a more accessible Arctic which is expected to be- come more economically viable, the en- forcement of Canada's sovereignty is go- ing to be challenged. Indeed, Canada has limited resources to monitor and respond to unwanted activity in its vast Arctic ter- ritory, including in the Northwest Passage - where legal status has long been disputed by other Arctic stakeholders. In the grey-zone dimension, climate change is likely to amplify opportunities for malign actors to engage in the Cana- dian Arctic through below-the-threshold operations, aiming at destabilizing Canada by creating or instrumentalizing vulner- abilities, and blurring the line between legitimate forms of engagement and ma- lign behaviors. Case-in-point for this are the activities carried out by China, which long-standing Arctic ambitions are often clashing with the interests of Canada and of other sovereign Arctic countries. Cli- mate change may empower Chinese hybrid activities in the Canadian Arctic in several ways, from justifying a deeper scientific footprint to monitor climate impacts in strategically-significant locations to entic- ing Chinese investments in the Canadian mining sector as part of the clean energy transition. Furthermore, as warming wa- ters are challenging global fisheries and drawing new fish species to the North, Chinese fishing fleets can use the opportu- nity to enter Canadian Arctic waters, carry out reconnaissance activities and test gaps in Canada's maritime and communication capacities. It is also worth noting that the multiple human-security risks from climate change outlined above intersect with the national security risks stemming from hy- brid tactics, as climate change undermines societal resilience to external threats, such as cyberattacks or espionage activities. Furthermore, climate effects are chal- lenging military readiness in the Canadian Arctic, as they impact missions, operational plans, and installations in the region. As ice melts, permafrost thaws, and storm behav- iors evolve, damage to infrastructure will af- fect northern military installations includ- ing runways, heating systems and energy supply. Melting ice roads will disrupt access to bases and undermine transportation and supply. Such risks may be particularly prob- lematic for the surveillance stations that are part of the North Warning System: should they become increasingly difficult to oper- ate, this may, in turn, weaken their missile surveillance and warning capacities. More- over, freezing rains, which have been found to be shifting northward and increasing in occurrence in the Canadian winter due to climate change, have major consequences for ground and air transportation and are already impacting the readiness of air forces stationed in the North. Of note, in a recent, high-profile instance, freezing rains have been presented by Chief of the Defence Staff Gen Eyre as the reason why Canadian fighter jets were delayed in departing to shoot down the Chinese balloon flying over Yukon on 4th February 2023. Lastly, climate impacts will put a grow- ing strain on Canadian forces, as they will need to address a surge in concurrent emergencies such as search-and-rescue and environmental-disaster response, related to the growing volume of maritime traffic in challenging Arctic conditions. Other con- current unconventional issues requiring resources and attention from Northern forces in Arctic waters may include illegal shipping, smuggling, and other transna- tional organized crime activities. Policy opportunities for a climate-resilient Canadian Arctic In light of this wide array of climate-re- lated risks, Canada has an opportunity to deepen the integration of climate impacts across Arctic security planning and pro- cesses, and to adapt its security structure to anticipate and respond to evolving cli- mate-security threats. Championing climate adaptation and mitigation from military forces: This effort should entail proactively adapt- ing Canada's Arctic military infrastructure and equipment to rapidly changing cli- mate conditions, in order to safeguard the Canadian Armed Forces' ability to enforce sovereignty and to project force into the region. In this perspective, increasing Arc- tic presence and investing in maritime and space-based assets will be key to closing the long-standing gaps in Canada's Arctic maritime domain awareness. Furthermore, the Canadian Armed Force's (CAF) climate security efforts in the Arctic should include working to improve its energy consumption Photo: Modern War Institute

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