Vanguard Magazine

www.vanguardcanada.com JUNE/JULY 2023 13 N O R A D M O D E R N I Z AT I O N and progress, at least on the surface, ap- pears to be somewhat lacking. Even the recent incident involving a purported Chinese spy balloon, which dominated news cycles in both countries, from its an- nounced presence in Alaskan airspace on 28 January 2023, until it was shot down off the US east coast on 4 February, does not seem to have added any appreciate urgency towards the implementation of the various aspects of the modernization project. Despite acknowledgement by se- nior NORAD officers that gaps in existing air defence infrastructure precluded the continuous surveillance of the balloon as it leisurely transited Canadian and US air- space, the government of Canada appears content to maintain its slow but steady ap- proach to NORAD modernization. Overall, investment in NORAD mod- ernization falls into five general catego- ries: replacing surveillance systems to ensure early detection of threats, improv- ing command and control infrastructure, acquiring air weapon systems; renovating or replacing physical facilities and sup- port capabilities; and investing in research and development (R&D) focused on fu- ture technologies. Immediate funding for projects within these categories has already programmed or will be dealt with through incremental additions to exist- ing budgets. The government, as it made clear in the June 2022 announcement, is not anticipating additional funding until approximately 2029 at the earliest. Funds annotated to various projects span a period from 2022 until 2042, but for the first six years the $4.9 billion allocated has already been assigned. Virtually all of the projects listed un- der the "NORAD Modernization Project Timelines" site (https://www.canada.ca/ en/depar tment-national-defence/ser- vices/operations/allies-partners/norad/ norad-modernization-project-timelines. html) are planned to reach project defi- nition between 2024-2029. Project defi- nition, the second of a four-step project management life cycle, allows the govern- ment to establish objectives, refine imple- mentation estimates, and identify potential problems to mitigate risk. Until this stage is complete, the timeline for when the as- sociated project will achieve initial opera- tional capability (IOC), or its minimum useful form, ranges from 2029 until 2035. Much of the work already completed or anticipated in the near future is either preparatory, addressed deficiencies with existing NORAD facilities, or involves supporting initiatives that fall within fu- ture-focused R&D. However, there has been some progress in each of the four re- maining modernization categories. Modernization of Surveillance Systems. ($6.96 billion) Monitoring threats to North America will rely on the replacement of dated North Warning System (MWS) by a new Northern Approaches Surveillance System (NASS). A mix of overt and classified sys- tems, the NASS will contain two over-the horizon radars (OTHR) capable of de- tecting airbreathing threats at greater dis- tances than currently available through the NWS. Prime Minister Trudeau announced in March 2023 that the Arctic OTHR will be built in southern Ontario, but its exact location has not been released. Placement of the Polar OTHR, located further north Despite acknowledgement by senior NORAD officers that gaps in existing air defence infrastructure precluded the continuous surveillance of the balloon as it leisurely transited Canadian and US airspace, the government of Canada appears content to maintain its slow but steady approach to NORAD modernization. A CF-188 Hornet fighter jet flies over the Forward Operating Location in Inuvik, Northwest Territories during Exercise AMALGAM DART 15-2 on May 29, 2015. Photo: Corporal Arthur Ark, AETE, Air Events, 4 Wing Cold Lake, Alberta

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