Vanguard Magazine

20 OCTOBER/NOVEMBER 2025 www.vanguardcanada.com A R C T I C Predictions suggest that the present rate of melting will result in an ice-free Arctic for some part of the summer by the mid–2030s to 2040s. are observed at low elevation angles, mak- ing their navigation signals more vulner- able to terrain masking, multipath reflec- tions from ice ridges, mountains, and ships' superstructures. Aurora and ionospheric disturbances in polar regions can intro- duce errors or signal loss, especially during geomagnetic storms. Signals from com- mercial communications satellites in geo- stationary orbits near the equator become unreliable in latitudes north of 75 degrees. While there are some military systems in high-inclination elliptical orbits designed to dwell in high latitudes, overall commu- nications connectivity is sparse compared to mid-latitudes and co-ordination of op- erational responses can be a challenge. The Canadian polar region remains an area of inadequate hydrographic coverage for safe navigation, let alone underwa- ter surveillance. Only 16 per cent of the Arctic is surveyed to modern standards of accuracy with multi-beam sonar, and only 48 per cent of primary and secondary low-impact shipping corridors are charted to either adequate or modern standards. 2 These corridors are often only a couple of kilometres wide, permitting cargo vessels access to remote hamlets for resupply. In areas not surveyed to modern standards distances between sounding lines can be too great to facilitate reasonable inter- polation of depth. Likewise, the accuracy of sounding positions may not accord with modern positional accuracy; sound- ings may be geo-referenced by terrestrial bearings only. As such they may more ac- curately relate to one side of a particular channel. In some areas paper charts only are available and these may be caveated with "unknown horizontal datum," indi- cating possible positional errors of up to seven nautical miles. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's worldwide Bathymetric Data Viewer shows that there are many sources of bathymetric data other than published charts. The Viewer shows gener- alized contours down to 10 metres and the paths of individual ship and research voy- ages for which track-line soundings might be available. The Canadian Hydrographic Service has similar information and many other field sheets of sounding data, in ar- eas for which detailed charts are not yet available due to lack of quality data. More- over, it must be assumed that our nuclear submarine-operating allies have classified charts of Arctic areas not frequented by surface ships. Indeed, Russian eco-tourism ships demonstrate comfortable levels of familiarity with the Canadian Arctic, and it has been suggested that Russian charts include additional knowledge from Cold War submerged transits. 3 The remoteness of the Arctic poses a further challenge to submerged opera- tions; the range to support services can be prohibitive in terms of transit time and efficiency. Canada has no accessible Arctic shipyards for submarines or warships. Can- ada's only Arctic naval port, the Nanisivik Naval Facility, consists of a rudimentary berthing arrangement with refueling ca- pability, and no other resident support for vessels (or aircraft) at that site. The sur- rounding population is distributed sparsely in small hamlets. The settlements are often separated by hundreds of kilometres, and they can offer no assistance. Submarines and UUVs face specific chal- lenges when operating in Arctic waters. Depth control can be difficult due to the rapid seawater density fluctuations. The navigational uncertainty of bathymetric contours and actual thickness of ice makes the calculation of safe clearances quite sus- pect. These conditions pose considerable risk for transits that must be completed underwater, possibly without terrestrial position corrections. The prospect of be- ing blocked by deep-keeled ridges and having to retrace routes is real, possibly at the risk of diminishing reserves of energy (if not nuclear-powered or with limited AIP). While these risks are not as great for smaller uncrewed vessels with lesser draughts, they are nevertheless susceptible to the austere polar weather, high winds, Arctic Underwater Surveillance – Systems Approach (Created by author)

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