Vanguard Magazine

4 OCTOBER/NOVEMBER 2025 www.vanguardcanada.com E D I T O R' S N O T E We are in the midst of getting ready for the 6th annual Deep Blue Forum on No- vember 4 in Ottawa. This issue gives a foretaste of topics for discussion that are key to understanding on how to prepare for a future submarine fleet, as we contin- ue to pursue the Canadian Patrol Subma- rine Program. In his submarine crew feature this month, our longtime friend and Vanguard contributor Norman Jolin makes an ob- servation that has stuck with me. The military personnel system, he notes, rests on four pillars: recruiting, training, crewing, and retention. No surprises there. What's striking is how tightly these pillars are bound together. If one falters, the oth- ers quickly come under strain. A shortfall in recruiting shrinks the training pipe- line, which leads to crew shortages. That, in turn, forces sailors to stay in position longer, hurting retention. Poor retention then undermines recruiting as the organi- zation's reputation takes a hit. A cycle that begins with a single weak link cascades through the whole system. It made me think about how decisions that seem straightforward on their face of- ten ripple in ways we don't expect. Cause and effect in this line of work is rarely straightforward. In many ways, this issue of Vanguard is devoted to that theme - looking beneath the surface to understand the deeper, in- terconnected layers. In Larry Hickey's fascinating piece on Arctic underwater operations, for example, he offers a sober reminder that the polar seas are anything but uniform. Ice, depth, acoustics, perma- frost, and shifting climate conditions all interact in ways that complicate navigation and surveillance. What seems at first like open water is, in fact, a dynamic and frag- ile system where small changes can have outsized consequences. These evolving conditions heighten the difficulty of main- taining effective underwater surveillance and safe operations in the Arctic. Ian Mack follows this thread of hidden complexity and applies it to the long and complicated history of military procure- ment. His Last Word piece on risk dy- namics in democratic systems lays bare how governments, by default risk-averse, often compound rather than reduce un- certainty. The unfortunate mix of process, fear of blame, and efforts to transfer risk to industry can create outcomes just as unstable as Arctic ice. His call to embrace transparency and smarter risk treatment is a reminder that procurement, like polar seas, is not just about what's visible on the surface, it's about navigating the unseen forces beneath. I'm also delighted to offer something new in this issue—a book review. Once again, we thank Norman Jolin, this time for sharing his take on Guardians of the North – Canadian Warships and Maritime Aircraft, 1910–2025. I won't give any- thing away; I'll let you read it for yourself. But if you're the kind of person fascinated by the intricacies and histories of Canada's military vessels and aircraft, this review, and the book, are must-reads. Finally, as part of Vanguard's partnership with the Best Defence Conference, tak- ing place in October 21 - 22 in London, Ontario, we are proud to profile a selec- tion of innovative companies shaping the future of Canada's aerospace, defence, and public safety sectors. As you know, Van- guard hosts and partners with many great events and conferences like this one, and we look forward to seeing everyone plan- ning to attend next month. For now, I hope you enjoy this issue, and I wish everyone a smooth and happy tran- sition from summer into autumn. Terri Pavelic, Editor-in-Chief EDITORIAL E D I TO R-I N-C H I E F | T E R R I PAV E L I C terri@promotivemedia.ca P U B L I S H E R A N D E X E C U T I V E E D I TO R | J. R I C H A R D J O N E S john@promotivemedia.ca E D I TO R | M I C H A E L M AC M I L LA N CONTRIBUTORS LA R RY H I C K E Y N O R M A N J O L I N I A N M AC K EDITORIAL ADVISORY BOARD LGen S T U A RT B E A R E (Ret'd) Col R I C H A R D F AWC E TT (Ret'd) Capt(N) N O R M A N J O L I N (Ret'd) Col P I E R R E L E B LA N C (Ret'd) CA R I N N A L I N S H A N N O N McC L U R E SALES D I R E CTO R, CO N T E N T & B U S I N E S S D E V E LO P M E N T | DAV I D B LO N D E A U david@promotivemedia.ca ART & PRODUCTION A RT D I R E CTO R | E L E N A PA N KOVA elena@promotivemedia.ca S U B S C R I P T I O N S A N D A D D R E S S C H A N G E S C I RC U LAT I O N S E RV I C E S | circulation@promotivemedia.ca Publisher's Mail Agreement: 40052410 Return undeliverable Canadian addresses to circulation dept. 21374, 2nd Concession Rd, East Gwillimbury, ON, L9N 0H7 Vanguard magazine is published 6 times per year by Promotive Communications Inc. All opinions expressed herein are those of the contributors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the publisher or any person or organization associated with the magazine. Letters, submissions, comments and suggested topics are welcome, and should be sent to terri@promotivemedia.ca REPRINT INFORMATION: Reproduction or photocopying is prohibited without the publisher's prior written consent. High quality reprints of articles and additional copies of the magazine are available through circulation@promotivemedia.ca PRIVACY POLICY: We do not sell our mailing list or share any confidential information on our subscribers. VANGUARD OFFICE 21374, 2nd Concession Rd, East Gwillimbury, ON, L9N 0H7 Phone: (905) 727-3875 THE FORUM FOR CANADA'S SECURITY AND DEFENCE COMMUNITY

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