Vanguard Magazine

SYNTHETIC ENVIRONMENT IN CANADA'S DEFENCE FUTURE Then, in what can only be described as a series of unlikely events, Canada's defence paradigm shifted dramatically within just eight months, driven by several converg- ing factors: the re-election of U.S. Presi- dent Donald Trump and his renewed an- tagonism toward Canadian sovereignty and prosperity, the unexpected political victory of Mark Carney as Canada's Prime Minister, and the intensification of geopo- litical conflict, cybersecurity threats, and armed aggression. Within his first 100 days in office, Prime Minister Carney broke from Canada's I n late 2024, Canada's Chief of De- fence Staff (CDS), Jennie Carignan, and the Canadian Armed Force's (CAF) Chief Warrant Officer, Bob McCann, published their reflections on the past year and their outlook toward the future. Much of the letter emphasized Canada's need to maintain operational readiness for a "rapidly changing world." The likes of geopolitical tensions, climate- related disasters, conflicts, humanitarian challenges, and other emerging security threats will, they argued, require a "uni- fied and focused defence team" that is harnessed through "modern equipment, advanced technologies, and cutting-edge training." At the time, these calls were far from novel. Canadian military officials and de- fence thought leaders have long cautioned that the CAF is ill-prepared to meet the demands of an increasingly unstable global environment. Perennial recruitment chal- lenges, procurement delays, and piecemeal modernization efforts have left Canada, according to Professor Andrew Latham, "increasingly isolated...unable to secure its own interests or contribute meaningfully to allied defence efforts." Without the capability to effectively de- ter foreign threats or adequately defend its sovereignty and national interests, Canadi- an political decision-makers quickly found themselves facing a lose-lose predicament: either commit to significant defence in- vestments despite limited public support or continue to do the minimum required to maintain operational readiness. Around the time Carignan and McCann released their report—and despite the warnings echoed by former CDS Wayne Eyre— it seemed Canada was headed for more of the same. The calls for action were loud, but both the political will and pub- lic appetite to address them were lacking. long- standing defence apathy by an- nouncing plans to invest 2% of GDP into national defence by the end of the fiscal year (i.e., March 2026) and committing to reaching 5% of GDP in core and support defence spending by 2030 at the 2025 NATO Summit in The Hague. These de- cisions finally aligned Canada with long- standing and newly emerging NATO defence-spending benchmarks. If realized, this will constitute the most significant investment in Canadian defence since the mid-Cold War. While some aspects of the spending are 12DECEMBER 2025/JANUARY 2026 www.vanguardcanada.com S Y N T H E T I C E N V I R O N M E N T B Y D R . K E V I N B U D N I N G A N D D R . A L E X W I L N E R

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