Vanguard Magazine

24 JUNE/JULY 2026 www.vanguardcanada.com A E W & C link service. It is, therefore, not surpris- ing that a major early-stage contract for the US Department of Defense's Space- Based Moving Target Indicator—a satel- lite based radar system—was awarded to SpaceX in recent weeks. However, the list of countries that can contemplate a sys- tem of this scale today is still extremely short, and perhaps only includes one country. For the United States, the question is not whether such constellations can be built, but whether they can deliver the re- quired performance at an acceptable cost. Today the United States is still hedging its bets by purchasing some AEW&C air- craft, setting up a production run that could be extended if space technology falls short of hopes, or takes longer to establish than is expected. Those aircraft may also find use in niche cases that satel- lite systems aren't equipped for. But the calculation they're doing is one of manag- ing a transition. That is a fundamentally different calcu- lation than the one Canada faces. Canada is not in a position to build or sustain a space-based alternative to AEW&C aircraft at anything approaching the scale required for persistent coverage. Even if it were, doing so would entail enormous cost, technical risk, and long timelines that would force enormous sac- rifices elsewhere. More importantly, Canada's immediate requirement is not global persistence. It is a flexible, deployable capability in spe- cific regions—particularly in the defence of North America—that replaces the ca- pability the United States is divesting or which may become unreliable. AEW&C aircraft are well suited to that role. They can be deployed where needed, integrated with allied forces, and adapt- ed to a range of scenarios. They provide immediate capability rather than a long- term technological bet. There are also alliance considerations. Many U.S. allies rely on AEW&C and face the need to replace aging fleets. If the United States reduces its commit- ment to this capability, others will look for alternatives. By moving early, Canada can position itself within that ecosystem, particularly given the domestic industrial role in the GlobalEye platform. From this perspective, Canada's deci- sion is pragmatic. It addresses a clear Canada is a world-leader in the use of space technologies. Sources vary somewhat by methodology, but Canada is routinely included among the top 10 nations in terms of satellites controlled either by its government or entities within the country—sometimes within the top 5. Radarsat2 Photo: Canadian Space Agency operational need with a proven solution, while supporting domestic industry and aligning with allied requirements. The apparent divergence between Can- ada and the United States is, in reality, less stark than it appears. The United States will, under any cir- cumstance, continue to operate some number of AEW&C aircraft for decades to come. Conversely, Canada's acquisition of AEW&C does not preclude greater use of space-based capabilities in the future. In fact, Canada has a number of on-going projects doing just that—just not on the scale of multiple-thousands of satellites. The future of early warning and control is likely to be hybrid for at least decades to come—combining space-based sen- sors, airborne platforms, and ground- based systems into an integrated network. What differs is how that balance will be struck, with Canada leaning more heavily on aircraft while the United States hopes to lean in the other direction. Canada's move into AEW&C is not a case of adopting a fading technology just as its useful life comes to an end. It is the adoption of a capability that remains highly relevant, precisely because its al- ternatives are not yet mature enough to replace it. The United States is experimenting at the frontier, leveraging its scale and re- sources to explore what comes next. Can- ada is addressing a more immediate need with a proven tool. Both approaches are rational. Both re- flect different constraints, priorities, and risk tolerances. The core question any country should ask when acquiring a new capability is whether it solves the problem that needs solving in the most beneficial way. For Canada, AEW&C clearly does. Jonathan Cassels is an independent de- fence analyst focused on the intersection of security policy, economics, and political decision making. As a contributor to a vari- ety of Canadian policy and defence outlets, as well as writing online under the pseud- onym Canadian Policy Hawk, he provides critical insight to bridge gaps in under- standing around Canadian security.

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