Vanguard Magazine

sulated from the impact of a recession based on how much the government likes them. Since the end of the Second World War, there have been eight Liberal Prime Ministers and five Progressive/Conservatives Prime Ministers. All governments since that time have made promises to the Canadian Armed Forces, and all governments have broken those promises when faced with slow economic growth or recessions. There are other factors that go into military spending, such as perceived threats to Canada, the level of defence spending and influence exerted by allies, war, policy and pressure from indus- try; yet, if you take a look at US and Canadian military spending between 1946-2001, evidence shows that – while Canada spends far less overall on its military than the United States – both na- tions mirror each other when defence spending is either cut or increased (the one exception is Vietnam). The pattern in military defence spending between Canada and the United States should reinforce the idea that, whether Con- servative or Liberal, the greatest determining factor in support for the military is the health of the economy. The perception of the Conservative government as a friend of the Canadian Armed Forces has more to do with effective branding than actual fact. Before Jean Chretien's Liberal government dragged the military into its 90's-era "Decade of Darkness," the Conservative govern- ment under Brian Mulroney was breaking promises and making cuts to defence in response to a ballooning deficit and an unprec- edented national debt. When Chretien came to power, he contin- ued to slash and burn Canada's trail back to economic prosperity. And in large part, his government was successful in doing that. The downside, however, is that the Conservatives used it against the Liberals ever since, perpetuating the idea that cutting military spending during the Chretien-era was a signal of the Liberal's lack of respect for the Canadian Armed Forces. Would it have been any different if the Conservatives weren't wiped out in 1993? Sitting on the bleachers while the Liberal government gutted the military was a fortunate position for the Conservatives to be in at that time, but that should not absolve them of guilt. Under the Mulroney government, the Canadian deficit grew; it played an active role in creating the economic crisis that resulted in historic cuts to DND. When Stephen Harper launched the Conservative Party to pow- er in 2006, the economy was growing rapidly and the party was in an excellent position to fulfill the promises it made in the "Canada First Defence Strategy". But in 2011, after forming a majority, Former Chief of Defence Staff Rick Hillier popularized the term "Decade of Darkness" to characterize the cuts made to the Canadian Armed Forces throughout the 90s. Many people in the defence community have little forgiveness for then-Liberal PM Jean Chretien's cost-cutting measures. Was the Harper government a "friend" of the military, or did it just make bigger promises than previous Liber- al governments? The "Canada First Defence Strategy" went largely unfulfilled as the economy plunged into a recession, but some promises – such as the NSPS – are moving ahead. There is much work to do for Prime Minister Trudeau in the de- fence file. Promising a "lean and agile" mili- tary, Canadians are watching and waiting to see if that's actu- ally a good thing. P PROCUREMENT www.vanguardcanada.com OCTOBER/NOVEMBER 2015 33 the Conservative government found itself in the midst of a global economic meltdown. Harper was forced to scale back his party's promises and cut defence spending, which predictably left him open to criticism from journalists such as then-Sun News colum- nist David Akin, who wrote: "Heck, even in the worst years of the Jean Chretien era, when Chretien was struggling with mountains of red ink, defence spending was 0.9% of GDP." Harper did not plunge military spending down quite that far, but came very close. He, like Chretien, was tasked with making tough decisions in uncertain economic times. Unfortunately, a "military friendly" government didn't seem to do the Canadian Armed Forces much good during the Conservative reign. The Liberals left the CAF in hard shape and the Conservatives de- parted just the same way. Whatever chance people in defence circles had at proving the theory that the future of the Canadian Forces could be brighter under a friendly Conservative government went sideways as soon as the economy tanked and the Canada First Defence Strategy was swept into the dustbin. Without a war, without a threat, and without support from the Canadian people, the fortunes of the Canadian Armed Forces will likely continue to be bound to economic growth – not a "friend- ly" government. Whatever your political leanings, temper your enthusiasm for promises made by politicians during election campaigns. The clos- est the Canadian Armed Forces will ever get to a military friendly government will be the one that — come economic downturn or all-out recession — actually comes through on its commitments. Don't count them out, but right now, Trudeau's Liberals have much work to do.

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