Vanguard Magazine

t tHe laSt WORD 46 DECEMBER 2015/JANUARY 2016 www.vanguardcanada.com with deficits. That certainly does not mean that cuts are not in order: the MOD's civilian workforce will be shredded by 30% on top of the 33% cut outlined in the 2010 policy. Still, from a Canadian perspective there are a few things that stand out. For one, there appears to be a prioritization by stealth of the armed services. The Royal Navy and the Royal Air Force seem to be the primary beneficiaries of the planned spending increases and acquisitions. The RN will see the commissioning of both Queen Elizabeth class aircraft carriers (up from one in 2010) between 2017 and 2020, a squadron of F-35Bs for the Fleet Air Arm, and four nuclear ballistic missile submarines. The RAF, in turn, will retain its C-130Js and acquire two new squad- rons of Typhoon jets plus an extra squadron of F-35Bs, for a total of 138 F-35s in both armed services. The British Army, in contrast, while not facing any more cuts beyond those outlined five years ago, will maintain a troop ceil- ing of 82,000 (down from 102,000), and a withdrawal of per- sonnel from Germany by 2020. With personnel costs typically represent around a half of all defence expenditures it should come as no surprise that cutting troop numbers is a relatively easy way of generating savings. Debate in Canada has persisted for sometime on the possibility of prioritizing two of the three armed services by possibility cutting back on the strength of the Canadian Army ; a view echoed by retired Chief of Defence Staff Rick Hiller in 2013. Moreover, on the matter of Ballistic Missile Defence the UK is much more clear-eyed about BMD being a 'fact of life' in NATO. Whitehall intends to purchase a ground-based BMD ra- dar and possibly configure some of its new Type 45 destroyers to operate in a BMD role, akin to the U.S. Navy's Aegis system. Similarly, in terms of airpower, the Security Review foresees the need for both a mixed manned and unmanned combat fleet for the next several decades. It is telling that yet again another Ca- nadian ally is pursuing the purchase of F-35s despite the contro- versy that exists on this side of the Atlantic. This is to say nothing about combat UAVs: the UK plans on replacing its 10 Reaper UAVs with 20 newer variants, in addi- tion to engaging in joint research with France on a new combat UAV. Meanwhile, Canada's equivalent UAV program, JUSTAS, is nearly a decade behind schedule. Reflecting an increase in Russian submarine activity in European waters the RAF will also enter into a sole-source acquisition of nine P-8 Poseidon Mari- time Patrol Aircraft to replace a capability lost with the retire- ment of the Nimrod fleet in 2010. All told, the 2015 Security Review represents a significant realignment of defence policy and expenditures with contem- porary security challenges. Thus, if there is one takeaway for Canadian defence planners from the UK experience it is in the need to link strategic analyses with military capabilities. A strong grounding in strategy, taking into account both military and non-military means, helps planners prioritize procurements and tailor the military's force structure to the government's objec- tives. It is worth remembering that in the end financial resources are scarce and threats often change. This makes it doubly impor- tant that governments be prudent in spending public money and rigorous in their analysis. References: 1. Perry, Dave. "A Primer on Recent Canadian Defence Budget- ing Trends and Implications." University of Calgary: School of Public Policy. April 2015. Web. 15 December 2015. 2. The Canadian Press. "Conservatives to revise $490B defence spending plan." CBC News. 4 June 2012. Web. 15 December 2015. 3. Government of Canada. Making Real Change Happen – Speech from the Throne. 4 December 2015. 4. Government of the United Kingdom. National Security Strat- egy and Strategic Defence and Security Review. London: Her Majesty's Stationery Office, 2015: 9. 5. Ibid., 10. 6. Ibid., 15, 20. 7. Ibid., 24, 40. 8. Chuter, Andrew. "Britain's New Strategic Defense and Secu- rity Review Draws Praise, Caution." DefenseNews. 25 Novem- ber 2015. Web. 15 December 2015. 9. Maclellan, Kylie. "Britain commits to NATO 2 percent defense spending target for next five years." Reuters. 8 July 2015. Web. 15 December 2015. 10. Chuter, "Britain's New Strategic Defense and Security Review Draws Praise, Caution." 11. Atkinson, Emma. "Armed forces job cuts reach target three years early." BBC News. 29 July 2015. Web. 15 December 2015. 12. For example, see Jones, Peter and Philippe Lagasse. "Rhetoric v. Reality: Canadian Defence Planning in a Time of Austerity." Defense & Security Analysis 28.2 (2012): 141-152. 13. Janus, Andrew. "Canada 'just can't get around' army cuts, Hillier says." CTV News. 23 September 2013. Web. 15 Decem- ber 2015. all told, the 2015 Security Review represents a significant realignment of defence policy and expenditures with contemporary security challenges. thus, if there is one takeaway for Canadian defence planners from the Uk experience it is in the need to link strategic analyses with military capabilities.

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