Vanguard Magazine

D Defence policy 36 ocToBER/NoVEMBER 2016 www.vanguardcanada.com ward to promote global stability and de- ter conflict from the sea. • Project Canadian power to shape and, when necessary, restore order to the global system nAVY fOR THIS GLOBAL eRA Key trends and drivers in today's global era have deepened the political, legal, eco- nomic and military stakes in the world's oceans, making for an increasingly com- plex and competitive future at sea. Ocean politics continue to intensify at home and abroad. Maritime defence and security threats are merging and expanding as operations across the spectrum of conflict grow more complex. This is especially the case in a relatively narrow zone near the world's coastlines where the majority of human- ity resides. This is where the most serious consequences of massive change and social disruption will continue to unfold in the decades ahead, making intrastate conflict nearly certain to challenge Canada in the coming decades. This is also where the Royal Canadian Navy (RCN), as part of a joint Canadian Armed Forces (CAF), will need to be prepared to operate against both state adversaries as well as armed maritime groups, against the backdrop of an intensely populous littoral environment that is orders of magnitude more complex than anything the RCN has yet experienced. A reordering of global power is also un- derway, with profound implications for great state cooperation, competition and confrontation. Nowhere is this more evi- dent than in the evolving Sino-American relationship, which may already be the de- fining geopolitical issue of our time, and specifically in the interaction of the mari- time strategies each state is pursuing in the AsiaPacific region. At stake is the integrity of global maritime order itself, an issue which is central to Canada's vital interests. On the one hand, China has conflated 'core interests' with a priori but tenuous historical claims to waters in the East and South China Seas that it calls its 'near seas,' while invoking an unusually expan- sive interpretation of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) in its perceived national interest. On the other hand, the United States, as the ultimate guarantor of the current global and mari- time order, must find ways to accommo- date China's rising ambitions and inter- ests without fundamentally changing that order. Moreover, the United States must also contend with the prospect that China may well succeed, without approaching the rough parity of naval power needed to match the US Navy's ability to project power globally. Indeed, all China needs to do is deny American access in its near seas for a period of grave instability in the global maritime domain to ensue, bring- ing with it the prospect of great power conflict. This paper does not suggest that such prospects are pre-determined. It argues that Canada must be prepared for such outcomes over the period spanning the operational lives of the RCN's next gen- eration of major warships, which will still be at sea in 2060. Nonetheless, the RCN's most funda- mental task remains to defend Canada's home waters. It will continue to do so pri- marily through support to its federal part- ners that are mandated to enforce Cana- da's jurisdictions, rights and obligations as a coastal state. This will continue to re- quire the RCN to exert its presence where and when needed, including the require- ment to control events at sea. The ability to do so will remain founded upon mari- time domain awareness, an understand- ing of who is operating in Canada's home waters, what they are doing and why. The outcome of these three maritime capabili- ties − awareness, presence and control − is what allows Canada to exercise its sover- eignty at sea. Accordingly, Canada will continue to re- quire a fleet of sufficient size to operate in Canada's three oceans and deploy abroad on an ongoing basis, while retaining the ability to respond to a major international contingency. Canada will continue to need a navy that can act with sovereign independence to defend Canada's terri- tory but that is highly interoperable with the United States to help defend North America. Canada will continue to need a navy that can contribute effectively to ma- jor international operations. However, to meet defence and security challenges in the coming decades, Cana- da's maritime forces will need to be: • Better equipped for sustained Arctic op- erations. The Harry DeWolf-class Arctic and Offshore Patrol Ships (AOPS) will serve as the RCN's primary springboard for meeting growing defence and secu- rity obligations in the Arctic, resulting from their ability to help regulate Arc- tic home waters as well as to monitor and respond to events, ranging from assuring the safety of mariners and re- sponding to environmental disasters, to The Rcn's most fundamental task remains to defend canada's home waters.

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