Vanguard Magazine

www.vanguardcanada.com DECEMBER 2017/JANUARY 2018 19 security ecosystem following five megatrends have major im- plications for global defence and security. 1. Shift in global economic power. The focus of global growth has shifted from Western to Eastern economic dominance. Pacific trade routes are becoming increas- ingly relevant. China's transition to a global power projector will challenge the tradi- tional balance of forces in the region. More and more, North Korea presents a disrup- tive potential. And the capacity of Western nations to exert influence is declining. 2. Demographic shifts. Explosive pop- ulation growth in some areas against de- clines in others contributes to everything from shifts in economic power to resource scarcity to changes in societal norms. The youth bulge – the rapidly growing demo- graphic group of young men and women in developing nations with limited eco- nomic opportunities, access to education, and safety – is creating significant security challenges as these conditions breed social discontent, crime, violence, and suscepti- bility to radical ideologies and movements. 3. Accelerating urbanization. The UN projects that by 2030, 60 per cent of the global population will live in cities, and one in three people will live in cities with at least half a million inhabitants. In 2016, there were 31 "megacities" (cities with more than 10 million inhabitants) and that number is projected to rise to 41 by 2030. However, mass migration to cities that are unable to expand infrastructure and ill- equipped to provide even basic services to such large numbers can result in the devel- opment of "mega slums" and "feral cities." Already there are examples of megacities where police and security forces dare not tread. These "ungovernable" spaces (where networks and criminals operate beyond the writ of municipal government) can become incubators for the radicalization of whole segments of the population and breeding grounds for criminal networks, terrorist non-state actors, and others who wish to disrupt security and stability. 4. Rise of technology. While break- throughs in artificial intelligence, nano- technology, and other frontiers are improv- ing productive potential for commercial enterprises, they are also enabling bad actors to advance their own capacity for disruption and destruction. And while technologically advanced countries can benefit from technology to enhance their intelligence-gathering and surveillance ca- pabilities, our dependency on technology (the Internet, cloud computing, encrypted network-capable devices, electrical grids, automated supply chains, etc.) increases our vulnerability by giving non-state actors or well-organized criminal networks the ca- pacity to attack at the heart of our societies. 5. Climate change and resource scar- city. The recent hurricanes that wreaked devastation on Texas, Florida, Puerto Rico and several other Caribbean islands were just one example of the forecasted increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events. Greater use of defence forces as first-responders for such natural disasters will put more strain on military re- sources. As global population increases and natural resources become scarcer, disputes over water and fishing rights will intensify. And as storm surge intensity and sea-level rise begin to affect coastal cities, larger in- frastructure investments will be needed to ensure the population's physical safety, and mass evacuations may be required. A systematic approach Nations should develop strategies that consider both fronts: potential immediate threats and the more longer-term but in- evitable threats engendered by megatrends. Gen. Allen expects these trends to wors- en as more success is seen in the destruc- tion of ISIL (fragmentation and dispersal of the threat), and as the unresolved politi- cal situation in Syria continues, generating thousands and thousands more refugees. Countries should not be tentative in inven- torying the relationships among their orga- nizations and agencies that should be work- ing together. Sometimes just a few internal organizational changes can reduce vulner- abilities and hamper the capacity of bad ac- tors to take advantage of the seams between organizations and the gaps in capabilities. This type of inventory should consider the organizational, intra-functional, inter- functional and national dimensions of the security ecosystem. • The organizational dimension focuses on the maturity, capacity, capabilities and efficacy of the individual entities within each of the relevant national security functions. • The intra-functional dimension focuses on the maturity, capacity, capabilities, collaboration and functional efficacy among entities within each relevant na- tional security function. • The inter-functional dimension focuses on the maturity, capabilities, capac- ity, collaboration and functional efficacy among entities responsible for all the rel- evant national security functions. • The national dimension focuses on the maturity, capacity, and efficacy of ecosys- tem coordination at the national level. "Individual agencies in government may have a decent understanding of what their individual deficiencies are, but often these deficiencies are only a part of broader, sys- tem-wide weaknesses that can't be solved in isolation," explains Thomas Modly. "The more a nation goes through this pro- cess of taking a system-wide approach, the more the different players involved will ac- cept it, and the more they will become ac- customed to working together to develop a more agile and effective prevention and response capability." The threats to security are multi-faceted and continually evolving. Only by conduct- ing a systematic analysis of the relationships among all components of your security eco- system can you identify the vulnerabilities, and then work to close the seams. Jeffrey D. Rodney is a Director, Consult- ing & Deals — Government Defense at PwC "We have to adapt our organizational approaches both within our own countries and across borders to maximize the flow of information and support we give each other." General (Ret) John R. Allen, USMC

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