Vanguard Magazine

industRY EvEnts 40 APRIL/MAY 2018 www.vanguardcanada.com T he year 2014 was a watershed one for the West. That year saw the annexation of Crimea and the return of Russia on the world scene as a potential adversary to NATO and its allies. With its ruthless behaviour in Crimea and Ukraine, the flexing of its muscle in numerous ex- ercises in the northwestern parts of Rus- sia near the Baltic states, and the constant sabre-rattling going on behind the scenes, the Kremlin is no longer seen as a strategic partner of the West. Deterrence as a response To counter this aggression, the West in gen- eral – and NATO more specifically – realize that they need to respond. One aspect of this response is in the form of deterrence. During the days of the Cold War, deterrence was a prominent strategy that was employed by the West, NATO and its allies in battling the Eastern Bloc of the Soviet Union and its satellite states. With the recent hostility from Russia and the difficulties in relations with China, we are witnessing the re-emer- gence of deterrence in Western policy. The return of deterrence is the topic up for discussion at the 13th annual Kings- ton Conference on International Security (KCIS). "This conference is an attempt to consider what has been done, where we are now, and what more could be done to deter Rus- sia from taking some adverse action that would affect NATO and its member states," said Dr. Jeffery Larsen, Director Research, NATO Defense College. "At the same time, we are trying to figure out a way to restore dialogue and reopen the diplomatic aspects of the relationship between the West and Russia, as nobody wants to return to the Cold War era." Dr. Larsen, who will be chairing the first panel on the Foundations of Deterrence at KCIS, believes that we are, in a sense, close to returning to the days of the Cold War. The difference though, he said, is that dur- ing that time the two sides were in discus- sions, had arms control negotiations and signed treaties. But today, "we're not doing that because, since April 2014, the Alliance has banned all practical cooperation with Russia." "At this point, there is no dialogue, and we do not see any response from Moscow. It's just all talk of conflict," he said. "Due to the situation, we need a good deterrence to prevent more from happening. That's what we're going to discuss at the conference." The concept of deterrence Since the end of the Cold War, many have forgotten what deterrence is and what it means. "Yet, defence organizations use the word 'deterrence' to mean good things," he pointed out. "Deterrence is good. We want deterrence. We want forces that deter, but nobody understands what that means." Deterrence is threatening another party to keep them from doing something you don't want them to do. "You threaten to harm something they value – like their homeland, their leadership, and military – and depend- ing on how you fashion the response, it will make it so bad that by doing a cost-benefit analysis, they will realize they should not take that action in the first place." He went on to explain further that deter- rence is a simple concept, but making it work between nation states that have lethal nucle- ar weapons is quite challenging. In the event a nation that is being deterred does not act accordingly, there will be "un- acceptable consequences" for that country. The response could be anything from a con- ventional response on the ground all the way up to a response including nuclear weapons. "The idea of using nuclear weapons is sup- posed to be used as a scare tactic and not to be deployed. It is a matter of frightening people into behaving so that the weapons don't have to be used," he said. Dr. Larsen went on to explain that for deterrence to work though, it needs to be credible. To be credible, you typically need capabilities and the will to use them. If either of those factors is in doubt, you don't have a credible deterrence. The future role of deterrence Terrorism and instability threats bubbling up in the Middle East, North Africa and Russia are creating the demand for the return of de- terrence. Dr. Larsen sees this as having two parts; one part is about having a traditional form of collective defence and deterrence against enemies that we don't anticipate the return oF deterrenCe by marCello sukhdeo

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