Vanguard Magazine

CoViD-19 www.vanguardcanada.com APRIL/MAY 2020 37 odology, such as the demographic, density, cultural and social features of the popula- tion, which also speak to genetic predispo- sitions. This is why the use of comparative or baseline data from other nations, unless normalized and contextualized, introduc- es a dangerous uncertainty. These, along with factors like the basic reproduction number (the RO) and the effective reproduction number (the R that describes transmissibility or average of sec- ondary cases from one case) provide direct indictors of possible and probable spread. Simply put, understanding or project- ing from the above analyses help forecast patterns of a virus under very specific, often changing, conditions. Overlays of incidence and prevalence, as the virus progresses, supports objective decision- making and triggers contingency and continuity phases dictating precautions, restrictions and risk ratings. Grey Matters Nothing ignites a conspiracy like misinfor- mation, the lack of relevant information that is not clear, targeted and timely. Ef- fective communication, especially in a time of crisis, requires audience-targeted mes- sages and detailed explanations, explicit directives and decisive action. In the ab- sence of this, the din of hysteria often ac- companying disasters thrives and unclear, changing or contradictory messages serve the opposite effect. Why is this important? Adversaries prey on weakened opponents. Grey zone tac- tics, a new and interesting phenomenon in the geo-political landscape, have be- come increasingly common with the rise of social media and integrated multime- dia. Generally, grey zones tactics, actions or strategies are regarded as advantageous capitalizations on the weaknesses or vul- nerabilities of a nation. Largely ambiguous and falling below traditional actions of warfare, grey zone actions are targeted, coordinated and ob- jectives-based and attempt to utilize major events to coerce and destabilize through the use of unconventional or psychological 'force'. Grey zone actions are especially ef- fective when an adversary wants to escape attribution or avoid crossing the threshold into conventional war, where it may be subject to treaties and conventions. At the social level, adversaries may either create opportunities, 'weaponize' or influ- ence current events where divisiveness or dissent can be garnered, such as elections, campaigns, legislative or political decisions (sanctions, partnerships, relief efforts, etc.) at national or transnational levels. With respect to COVID-19, already early intelligence is reporting that domestic and international extremists, including ISIL/ ISIS/Daesh, are sharpening their swords on the pandemic's current state and future fallout. Rampant on social media but more elaborate than doctoring photos or deep fake videos, it's the progressive planting of doubt akin to protracted spin-doctoring. But the spin objective is to bring a nation or its sectors to their knees. Protracted Vulnerability? There is no question that COVID-19 has had and will continue to have an enor- mous impact on Canada's economy, part- nerships, trade and, presumably, its hu- manitarian role and ability to provide aid to other nations. At a time when the na- tion's economic health has begun to stag- nate, the waters ahead will be difficult to navigate even with hard decisions, inten- sive sacrifices and an additional debt load. How vulnerable is Canada in the midst of this crisis? The answer to that monumental question lies in the duration of the pan- demic itself, the resulting economic pos- ture and how much and how fast it can recover. With a sluggish economic trend in re- cent years, 2019 was marked by an over- all global downturn with almost 90 per cent of countries' economies experienc- ing lower growth than in 2018. Canada wasn't immune; its 2018 economy dipped in 2019 from 1.9 per cent to 1.5 per cent. The 2020 economic growth was forecast- ed by the Business Development Bank of Canada (BDC) to be about 1.7 per cent, improving on the growing Canadian real estate markets, residential investments, household consumption and consumer confidence. That was then, this is now: those markets are now in dire jeopardy. With COVID-19 calling for a massive economic recovery for major nations, Canada's targets will likely fall substan- tially short. Rest assured, there will be a rebound, but it will not be automatic and a number of events, starting with the lower incidence of COVID-19 cases and a detailed assessment of loss and recovery, must play out before a cascade-effect can occur. Depending on the post-pandemic dam- ages and what sectors can be shored up and how, it will be productivity (re-employ- ment/employment, financial and lending, manufacturing and cross-sector stability and growth) that will be the strongest in- dicator of overall economic health. From there, sectors such as transporta- tion, retail, tourism, energy, technology and innovation; commodities and curren- cies should follow suit. But this will rely on timing and the outcomes of key political events, like next November's US election, trade tensions and the future of Brexit - and that, fingers crossed, no other major disasters occur. Looking forward, the COVID-19 pan- demic has set the stage for a solid shot across the bow to both the US and Can- ada – the question becomes, will they be able to maintain defensive capabilities and resources necessary for national stability? Whether this vulnerability is exploited or not remains to be seen but Canada's De- fence Policy, and possibly funding, will certainly be put to the test. Valarie Findlay is an American Society for Evidenced-Based Policing member and a research fellow for the Police Foundation (USA) with two decades of senior-level expertise in cybersecurity and policing ini- tiatives. She has worked extensively on federal cyber initiatives and is a member of the Canadian Association of Chiefs of Police eCrimes Cyber Council and AFCEA DC. She has a Masters in Sociology and a Masters in Terrorism Studies with her dissertation addressing the impacts of terrorism on law enforcement in Western Nations. Depending on the post-pandemic damages and what sectors can be shored up and how, it will be productivity (re-employment/employ- ment, financial and lending, manufacturing and cross-sector stability and growth) that will be the strongest indicator of overall economic health.

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