Vanguard Magazine

34 JUNE/JULY 2020 www.vanguardcanada.com procureMent DefeNce pROcuRemeNt won't be so easy to cut in a time of coViD-19 As goverNmeNTs AroUND The worlD reAssess NATioNAl secUriTy, oTTAwA coUlD fiND iT hArDer To DelAy plANs for New ships, helicopTers, AND fighTer jeTs. A few months into the CO- VID-19 pandemic, the first signs of impact on Canada's defence procurement plans are showing. The govern- ment has been following an ambitious multi-decade blueprint, starting in 2010, to kick-start the domestic shipbuilding sector, but some yards have had to scale back their workforce under public health orders. What this means for the National Shipbuilding Strategy and its more than $85 billion (by my calculations) in ongo- ing and planned construction of large ships is as yet unclear. The $19-billion Future Fighter Ca- pability project, designed to replace the four-decade-old CF-18 fighter with 88 new jets, could also be affected. Govern- ment officials were adamant until early May that the June submission deadline for bids remained unchanged — before grant- ing a 30-day extension. But with industry and public sector workers largely stuck at home, it is difficult to see how even the new July deadline can be met. In earlier times of economic strain, Ot- tawa found defence spending an easy tar- get for cuts. This time could be different, as governments around the world reassess what national security means and how best to achieve it. Heading into 2020, things were still look- ing up for the capital spending plans of the Department of National Defence (DND) and the Canadian Armed Forces (CAF). The Trudeau government's 2017 Strong, Secure, Engaged (SSE) defence policy had allocated $108 billion in capital expendi- tures over a 20-year timeframe, 2017-37. Then came the pandemic. There were more than a million job losses in March alone, and as of early May, the Parliamen- tary Budget Office was predicting a $1-tril- lion debt by 2021. Given the rapid drop in both domestic and global consumer de- mand, the price collapse in the country's key commodity, oil, and the accompanying decline in the Canadian dollar, the country is now in a recession for an unknown pe- riod. If the past is prologue and the virus persists without a vaccine for the foresee- able future, the likelihood of the govern- ment delaying or cancelling projects or By Jeffrey f. collins

• Cover