Vanguard Magazine

24 APRIL/MAY 2021 www.vanguardcanada.com WHY NOW? NORAD BY MICHAEL DAWSON, PHD NORAD NORAD 'renewal' has recently been mak- ing news, especially as US President Biden, in his first 'virtual meeting' with Prime Min- ister Trudeau, is reported to have raised the issue. It should be noted that the NORAD agreement does not have a fixed date for renewal as it did for many years, on ten- year intervals. At its last formal renewal, the two governments decided that the agree- ment should be extended indefinitely, with a five-year review process. During a review, some amendments to the agreement might be agreed and at that point, the agreement would go through each country's treaty process to incorporate the desired changes. Of course, like all Canadian treaties, a stan- dard withdrawal clause remains in the text. So, we are not discussing the diplomatic/ legal process of extending or modifying the agreement. What the President and Prime Minister were referring to are the ongo- ing studies that were launched in the last bilateral review of the agreement to renew the technological base of NORAD. In par- ticular, the North Warning System, dating from the late 1980's, is fast approaching the end of both its functional life and its ability to provide the capability required to counter a new generation of nuclear weap- ons and new ideas for their use. Decision time is approaching and without question the price tag will not be negligible. (Jockel, 2007, for a concise history of NORAD). But why is this Cold War defence system, albeit for over six decades at the centre of the Canada-USA defence relationship, now in need of a major renewal when some more modest upgrades might support an air de- fence mission focused on aerial sovereignty and counter-terrorism? In fact, the Cana- dian Government's intentions regarding the defence of North America, our defence relationship with the U.S. and NORAD in particular are stated in its defence policy statement, Strong, Secure, Engaged (SSE 2017). There is no change in the priority assigned to the defence of North America and NORAD from previous defence policy documents, which is ranked second only to the defence of Canada itself. SSE does state that Canada will fulfill its NORAD obligations "with new capacity in some areas" and "modernize NORAD to meet existing challenges and evolv- ing threats to North America, taking into account the full range of threats." (SSE 2017. 90) SSE indicates that the resources will be available when required. To better understand the impetus for significantly modernising NORAD, we will examine the context of contemporary deterrence, the evolving Russian doctrine for the use of nuclear weapons, and technological de- velopments that are outpacing NORAD's existing technological base. The Changing Understanding of Deterrence Deterrence has always been more complex than the simplistic invocation of Mutually Assured Destruction or the Gorbachev - Reagan declarations that a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought. As far back as the 1980's, advancements in precision guidance led some strategists to observe that a new generation of pre- cision conventional weapons could effec- tively strike key targets hitherto included in nuclear targeting plans. (Krepinevich 2019, 38) More recently, advances in very low yield nuclear weapons may have made them more useable. Defined escalation lad- ders have therefore been superseded by "cross-cutting conventional and strategic Two members of 2 Air Expeditionary Wing evaluate airfield infrastructure to identify a suitable location for a mobile radar system, during their survey visit to Rankin Inlet on January 29, 2020. PHOTO: NORAD Renewal:

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