Vanguard Magazine

www.vanguardcanada.com OCTOBER/NOVEMBER 2021 35 Discussion Threats passing through the Canadian Arctic emanate from outside of the re- gion and travel through or over it to strike targets also outside of the region. For example, a ballistic missile with con- ventional warheads launched from Russia would likely pass over the Canadian Arctic before striking at a target in the northern continental United States. Sensor systems that detect the launch and track the missile might be based in the Arctic, but it would be misconstrued as an Arctic threat in a defence of North America context. Threats to the Canadian Arctic are those that emanate from outside of the region and affect the region itself. Examples could include a below-the-threshold at- tack on critical Arctic infrastructure, a for- eign vessel running aground in Canadian waters with deleterious environmental ef- fects, the introduction of a pandemic, or the acquisition of a port or airfield at a strategic location by a company controlled by a non-like-minded state. Threats in the Arctic originate within the region and have primary implications for the region. Examples include permafrost degradation threatening critical infrastruc- ture, the failure of a diesel-electric genera- tor powering an isolated community, or heightened polarization of public debate leading to economic or political disruption. Some threats, such as climate change (which is caused by activities outside the region and thus represents a threat to it, while regional and local climate dynam- ics in the Arctic such as extreme weather With climate change "opening new access" to the region, SSE states that "Arctic and non-Arctic states alike are looking to benefit from the potential economic opportunities associated with new resource development and transportation routes." ARCTIC November 16 & 17, 2021 bestdefenceconference.com VIRTUAL CONFERENCE threaten residents), will straddle these categories, but this conceptual exercise around threats can help to determine appropriate scales for preparedness and response, and by which primary stake- holders, to different threats rather than bundling them all together as a generic list of "Arctic threats." Threats Through the Canadian Arctic: Situating the Arctic in a Global Context For nearly a century, Canada has invested in building and sustaining an international system that reflects its values and inter- ests. A shifting balance of power and the re-emergence of major power competition now threatens to undermine or strain the established international order and rules- based system. China, as an emerging eco- nomic superpower, aspires to a global role proportionate to its economic weight, population, and self-perception as the Middle Kingdom. Russian President Vlad- imir Putin's recent declaration that liberal- ism is "obsolete" affirms that his country has deviated from its early post-Cold War path, and its revisionist behaviour in Geor-

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