Vanguard Magazine

36 OCTOBER/NOVEMBER 2021 www.vanguardcanada.com gia, Ukraine, and Syria exemplify Russia's willingness to test the international secu- rity environment. Consequently, Canada's role is less obvious in the emerging mul- tipolar world, which challenges the West- ern-designed security system, than it was in the bipolar Cold War order or the uni- polar moment that followed. This creates more space for emerging state and non- state actors to exercise influence, including in the Arctic. Within this broader context, Strong, Se- cure, Engaged highlights three key security trends that will continue to shape events: the evolving balance of power, the chang- ing nature of conflict, and the rapid evo- lution of technology. All of these trends have direct and indirect application when contemplating and imagining future Arc- tic security environments, vulnerabilities, and requirements. Furthermore, Canada's Arctic and Northern Policy Framework (ANPF) emphasizes that: The international order is not static; it evolves over time to address new opportu- nities and challenges. The Arctic and the North is in a period of rapid change that is the product of both climate change and changing geopolitical trends. As such, international rules and institutions will need to evolve to address the new chal- lenges and opportunities facing the re- gion. As it has done in the past, Canada will bolster its international leadership at this critical time, in partnership with Northerners and Indigenous peoples, to ensure that the evolving international order is shaped in a manner that protects and promotes Canadian interests and values. In a complex security environment char- acterized by trans-regional, multi-domain, and multi-functional threats, Canada must continue to work with its allies to under- stand the broader effects of the return of major power competition to the interna- tional system and to regions like the Arctic, and what this means for Canadian defence relationships and partnerships. Emerging threats to North America, across all do- mains, must be situated in the context of continental defence and the longstanding Canada-U.S. defence partnership exempli- fied by NORAD. Resurgent great power competition and advances in weapons tech- nology pose new threats to continental se- curity, however, which require NORAD to modernize and evolve to meet current and future threats. Both SSE and the ANPF underscore the importance of NORAD modernization ef- forts, the integration of layered sensor and defeat systems, and improving the CAF's reach and mobility in the Arctic within this alliance construct. New commitments, however, will require creative thinking about infrastructure, surveillance and de- tection, interception capabilities, and com- mand and control relationships. US North- ern Command and NORAD highlight the importance of advanced sensors that can detect, track, and discriminate advanced cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, hyperson- ics, and small unmanned aerial systems at full ranges (as well the platforms that carry these weapons), as well as new mechanisms to defeat advance threat systems (including advanced cruise missiles capable of striking North America "from launch boxes in the Arctic"). Accordingly, talk of the need to "harden the shield" to project a credible deterrent against conventional and below- the-threshold attacks on North America anticipates new Canada-U.S. solutions that will incorporate Arctic sensors and systems in a layered "ecosystem" of sensors, fusion functions, and defeat mechanisms. Furthermore, Canada is working with its NATO allies to re-examine conventional deterrence and how to counter adversarial activities "below the threshold" of armed conflict in the Arctic. The statement in Strong, Secure, Engaged that "NATO has also increased its attention to Russia's abil- ity to project force from its Arctic territory into the North Atlantic, and its potential to challenge NATO's collective defence posture" marks a measured shift in Can- ada's official position. Despite Canada's reticence to have the alliance adopt an ex- plicit Arctic role over the past decade, the inclusion of this reference – as well as the commitment to "support the strengthen- ing of situational awareness and informa- tion sharing in the Arctic, including with NATO" – indicates a newfound open- ness to multilateral engagement on "hard security" in the Arctic with its European allies. NATO is the cornerstone of both Danish and Norwegian defence and secu- rity policy, which also opens opportunities for enhanced bilateral relationships. How this newfound interest in NATO's Arctic posture interacts with Canada's longstand- ing preference to partner bilaterally with the U.S. on North American continental defence remains to be clarified in the next decade. Threats to and in the Canadian Arctic: Towards a Whole-of- Society Approach The growing realization of the dispropor- tionate impact of anthropogenic climate change on the circumpolar region, and concomitant social, economic and envi- ronmental consequences for the rest of the world, also commands global attention. Canada's ANPF highlights that "the Ca- nadian North is warming at about 3 times the global average rate, which is affecting the land, biodiversity, cultures and tradi- tions." This rapid change is "having far- reaching effects on the lives and well-being of northerners, threatening food security and the transportation of essential goods and endangering the stability and func- tioning of delicate ecosystems and critical infrastructure." There is extensive Cana- dian interest in how these changes affect ARCTIC The complexity of the regional security environment places a premium on collaboration amongst all levels of government, Indigenous peoples and local commu- nities, as well as with trusted international partners.

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