Vanguard Magazine

June/July 2014

Preserving capacity, General Tom Lawson, Chief of the Defence Staff, Keys to Canadian SAR

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www.vanguardcanada.com JUNE/JULY 2014 39 S SECURITY Alex Wilner is a visiting scholar at the Munk School of Global Affairs, University of Toronto, and a senior fellow with the Macdonald Laurier Institute in Ottawa. COUNTER- TERRORISM THE PROMISES AND PITFALLS OF T his year Canadians will mark a solemn anniversary: the cen- tennial of World War One. The prelude to the world's most brutal war began on June 28, 1914 with the assassination of Austrian Archduke Franz Ferdinand in Sarajevo. Tens of millions of souls perished in the ensuing years. But like all traditional wars, WWI also eventually ended. Canadians solemn- ly mark that date every single year. On November 11 at 11:00 AM, Cana- dians stand for two minutes of silence. We do so to recall the terrible sacrifice this country paid during the conflict and to pay tribute to our veterans of all subsequent wars. Eleven AM holds special resonance because at precisely that time, on the 11th day of the 11th month in 1918, World War One officially ended. The Armistice – the agreement signed by Germany and the al- lies – dictated the terms of the peace. Think about that for a second: the war- ring parties sat down, around a table, and negotiated an end to a vicious war. The guns fell silent, the armies eventually packed it in, and the peace held for roughly 20 years. Now picture that scenario today with an adversary like al Qaeda. Can you imagine two minutes of silence commemorating the end of this conflict? It is impossible to do so: this conflict is so utterly different from traditional war that it is hard to envi- sion any ending at all. There is no way al Qaeda is going to join us at the table to negotiate some form of lasting and mean- ingful truce. Fanaticism is its raison d'être. But we should not fool ourselves, either. We, too, will prove exceptionally poor ne- gotiating partners. What might we realis- tically give al Qaeda to ensure an end to hostilities: what piece of land, or foreign community, or policy would we be will- ing to trade or sacrifice? The bottom line is that this conflict is unlikely to end in any negotiated settlement. At the same time, outright victory against al Qaeda will prove elusive. It has repeat- edly demonstrated its ability to exploit weak and failing states, and to take advantage of civil conflict in order to carve itself new safe havens. It feeds on political instability. Al Qaeda also continues to attract foreign militants to its cause, who pick up its flag and mantra as their own. And it has a knack for recruiting Westerners. The upshot is that the conflict with al Qaeda-inspired, Jihadi-Salafi Islamist mili- tancy will go on. Instead of a modern Ar- mistice we are stuck with perpetual coun- terterrorism. We do our best to destroy them; they do their best to hurt us. In the

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